According to an internal poll released to Marc Ambinder, Obama trails McCain by only five points in South Dakota.
The poll was commissioned for Tim Johnson who leads easily.
Ambinder notes that the poll actually oversampled Republicans by two points and has conservatives at 45%. So this poll may be undercounting Obama's votes in South Dakota.
What's amazing here is that Obama actually lost SD in the primary, a result that convinced many people that he had really lost momentum in the late primary. Unlike WV and KY, SD should have gone Obama considering its surrounding states.
Or so went the thinking at the time.
But we've seen Obama's strength in North Dakota in a few polls as well as Montana. And Obama dominates in Iowa and Minnesota. He even has strength in parts of Nebraska, so it isn't crazy that he'd do well in South Dakota.
But not 5 points down, which is about where Obama is in Arizona and Georgia right now.
A massive wave on Tuesday could give both Dakotas, Montana and two electoral votes in Nebraska to Obama. It's unlikely but has to be considered possible.
I'll also say that I went to South Dakota for the first time this summer and found it beautiful. The Black Hills remind me a lot of East Tennessee where I live. And Wind Cave was one of the neatest National Parks I've been to in that area.
It would be wonderful if SD went blue!